Pre-tourney Rankings
Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#272
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#275
Pace68.6#179
Improvement+0.6#159

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#299
First Shot-4.3#298
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#212
Layup/Dunks+2.3#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#338
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement+2.9#58

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#214
First Shot-2.1#231
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#118
Layups/Dunks-0.7#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#188
Freethrows-1.7#286
Improvement-2.3#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.00.0 - 0.0
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 20.0 - 1.00.0 - 2.0
Quad 30.0 - 5.00.0 - 7.0
Quad 412.8 - 9.212.8 - 16.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2018 332   Cal Poly W 73-65 79%    
  Nov 20, 2018 235   UC Davis W 58-55 42%     1 - 0 -1.3 -14.8 +13.5
  Nov 24, 2018 192   Cal St. Fullerton W 87-82 OT 44%     2 - 0 +0.2 -4.1 +3.3
  Nov 29, 2018 170   @ UC Santa Barbara L 58-75 21%     2 - 1 -14.9 -10.5 -5.6
  Dec 01, 2018 252   @ Cal St. Northridge W 88-68 36%     3 - 1 +17.4 +5.4 +10.7
  Dec 08, 2018 319   @ Portland L 67-76 55%     3 - 2 -16.7 -13.7 -2.3
  Dec 21, 2018 51   @ Washington L 41-57 5%     3 - 3 -3.6 -19.8 +14.9
  Dec 29, 2018 194   Northern Colorado L 65-70 44%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -9.8 -8.6 -1.3
  Jan 03, 2019 130   @ Montana L 56-87 14%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -25.5 -18.3 -5.5
  Jan 05, 2019 241   @ Montana St. L 70-84 33%     3 - 6 0 - 3 -15.9 -11.7 -3.6
  Jan 12, 2019 324   Idaho St. L 70-72 76%     3 - 7 0 - 4 -15.8 -7.8 -8.1
  Jan 17, 2019 300   @ Northern Arizona W 66-64 46%     4 - 7 1 - 4 -3.4 -3.5 +0.4
  Jan 19, 2019 280   @ Southern Utah L 71-76 41%     4 - 8 1 - 5 -9.0 -8.0 -0.5
  Jan 24, 2019 345   Idaho W 69-48 86%     5 - 8 2 - 5 +2.9 -2.7 +9.3
  Jan 26, 2019 227   Eastern Washington L 92-94 OT 50%     5 - 9 2 - 6 -8.5 +3.3 -11.5
  Jan 31, 2019 324   @ Idaho St. W 74-58 57%     6 - 9 3 - 6 +7.8 -3.8 +12.3
  Feb 02, 2019 212   @ Weber St. L 65-75 27%     6 - 10 3 - 7 -10.0 -6.4 -3.7
  Feb 09, 2019 194   @ Northern Colorado L 59-65 25%     6 - 11 3 - 8 -5.3 -7.7 +1.9
  Feb 11, 2019 275   Portland St. W 78-67 62%     7 - 11 4 - 8 +1.6 +8.8 -5.8
  Feb 14, 2019 280   Southern Utah W 84-73 62%     8 - 11 5 - 8 +1.5 +3.8 -2.9
  Feb 16, 2019 300   Northern Arizona L 66-78 67%     8 - 12 5 - 9 -22.9 -9.1 -14.6
  Feb 21, 2019 212   Weber St. W 78-76 47%     9 - 12 6 - 9 -3.5 +0.6 -4.2
  Feb 23, 2019 275   @ Portland St. L 57-65 40%     9 - 13 6 - 10 -11.9 -15.6 +3.2
  Feb 28, 2019 227   @ Eastern Washington W 59-56 30%     10 - 13 7 - 10 +2.1 -12.9 +15.1
  Mar 02, 2019 345   @ Idaho L 90-94 72%     10 - 14 7 - 11 -16.5 +7.2 -23.7
  Mar 07, 2019 241   Montana St. W 70-67 54%     11 - 14 8 - 11 -4.5 -12.4 +7.9
  Mar 09, 2019 130   Montana L 68-86 27%     11 - 15 8 - 12 -18.0 -6.1 -12.0
  Mar 13, 2019 300   Northern Arizona W 72-60 57%     12 - 15 +3.9 -1.6 +6.3
  Mar 14, 2019 130   Montana L 73-79 19%     12 - 16 -3.3 +1.0 -4.3
Projected Record 12.8 - 16.2 8.0 - 12.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 100.0 100.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 100.0% 100.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 78.8%
Lose Out 21.2%